Even splits

Economist on China's GDP growth: link

The source of China’s growth is more worrying than its speed. According to Mark Williams of Capital Economics, investment comprised 62% of the economy’s expansion in the second quarter, its biggest contribution for 18 months. Investment in fixed assets, such as buildings, factories and equipment, has grown by between 21% and 26%, year on year, for the past four quarters, despite the government’s efforts to tighten credit. This resilience may be because so much investment is carried out by state-owned firms, which are at the top of the pecking order when banks make loans. It may also be a sign that financing is not as tight as the hawks would like.
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But other analysts think financial conditions are looser than they appear. The central bank publishes a broader measure of “social financing”, which includes corporate bonds and some loans repackaged by “trust” companies. By this measure, financing could reach 14.5 trillion yuan this year, according to Fitch, a ratings agency. Even that total may be too low. Fitch believes a better measure of financing—which includes letters of credit loans from Hong Kong and more of the credit from trust companies and similar firms —could exceed 18 trillion yuan this year. That would take China’s stock of financing to 185% of GDP, up from 124% in 2007.

Yet China seems to be getting less bang for its financial buck. In 2007, Fitch reckons, it took 1.28 yuan of extra financing to produce an additional yuan of GDP. Now it takes 2.38. China’s growth may be remarkably even. But its financial system is having to pump harder to maintain the pace.