中國國家統計局：全国人口普查主要数据发布
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2011年4月29日 星期五
2011年4月28日 星期四
2011年4月27日 星期三
2011年4月22日 星期五
2011年4月20日 星期三
Wall Street and the crisis
Propublica series: The Wall Street Money Machine
NYT: Naming Culprits in the Financial Crisis | report
WSJ: Senate Report Lays Bare Mortgage Mess (Chinese ver.)
NYT: Naming Culprits in the Financial Crisis | report
WSJ: Senate Report Lays Bare Mortgage Mess (Chinese ver.)
The Senate report alleges that Goldman then undertook a multibillion dollar series of trades to hedge its bullish bets by selling mortgage-related trades to allegedly unsuspecting investors. The head of Goldman's mortgage unit recommended managers of Goldman's sales force issue "ginormous" sales credits to those who could find investors anywhere in the world.wiki: Magnetar Capital
CFIUS on Huawei
Financial Times, China and the US: Access Denied
“Awareness in the national security policy community of threats in the cyber domain has greatly increased,” says Mr Mancuso. “So if you believe that the Chinese government is engaging in cyber-intrusion, you’ll have a problem with Huawei because Huawei sits smack in the middle of the industry supplying the critical infrastructure.”
Under Cfius rules, the takeover of a sensitive asset is investigated on a voluntary basis for 30 days. During the Bush era, companies were only rarely subject to longer, 45-day investigations after that 30-day period. That has changed. In 2007 just 4 per cent of deals were subject to full investigations in 2007, according to Cfius data. By 2009 the figure was 38 per cent.
Internet freedom
Freedom House report: Freedom on the Net 2011
自由時報報導
自由時報報導
中國對網路採兩手策略，一方面推動網路以促進經濟發展，另一方面卻控制網路內容。中國的網路控制包括三項技術，分別是自動技術過濾、強迫網路業者自我審查以及主動操控，並藉由管制色情、賭博等行為之名，來執行過濾具政治或社會敏感等議題的目標。
2011年4月15日 星期五
2011年4月13日 星期三
IMF WEO 201104
IMF: World Economic Outlook, April 2001
WSJ summary
| Chapter 4. International Capital Flows: Reliable or Fickle? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Text | Summary | Figures | Video | |||
What Are the Main Findings? Trends in Net Capital Flows: Size, Composition, Volatility, and Persistence Capital Flows and the Global Environment Does Direct Financial Exposure Affect the Response of Private Capital Flows to Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy? | |||
2011年4月12日 星期二
Bob Dylan in China
香港信報，搖滾樂有話兒
Dylan 這次來港前，上星期也首次在中國演出。適逢中國政府「綁架」了藝術家艾未未（沒有指控罪名，不算拘捕），Dylan 如期在工人體育館演出，次日《金融時報》報導的首頁插圖的標題說，他在北京的演唱會不能唱出令官方尷尬的歌，四月八日的社論（註一）更帶點揶揄地說，他不 談政治，只唱一曲「沒有殺傷力」的"Gonna Change My Way of Thinking"（「要改變我的想法」），社論還舉出一九六三年 Dylan因為某電視台對他的一首歌曲的歌詞有意見而拒絕出現該台，暗示他今天經已「適應思想」及妥協，「雖然有些人會認為不該期望 Dylan先生做出西方政治和商業體系也不能成功做到的事，但看見抗爭音樂之祖父『隨風而盪』也是有點令人失落。」
2011年4月11日 星期一
Macro policies after the crisis
Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis
IMF, Washington, DC, March 7 and 8, 2011
"The crisis has clearly shown both the limits of markets and the limits of government intervention. It is time to take stock, and draw a first set of lessons. Given the IMF’s mandate to advise its 187 member countries on economic and financial policies, it needs to be at the forefront of this effort. I look forward to this important conference."
--Olivier Blanchard
Introductory video by Olivier Blanchard
--Olivier Blanchard
Introductory video by Olivier Blanchard
Program
Can US Compete With China on Green Tech?
New York Times: Room for Debate
The Obama administration has sought to promote green technology as a growth engine in the U.S. But even with some government support, new firms have a hard time competing with foreign producers. The U.S. currently accounts for just $1.6 billion of the world’s $29 billion market for solar panels, with China, using aggressive policies, to become the dominant maker of equipment like solar panels and wind turbines. Congress was so concerned about unfair trade practices harming American manufacturers that it recently approved a provision to require the Pentagon to buy only American-made solar panels.
.....
Can the U.S. Compete With China on Green Tech?
IntroductionThe Obama administration has sought to promote green technology as a growth engine in the U.S. But even with some government support, new firms have a hard time competing with foreign producers. The U.S. currently accounts for just $1.6 billion of the world’s $29 billion market for solar panels, with China, using aggressive policies, to become the dominant maker of equipment like solar panels and wind turbines. Congress was so concerned about unfair trade practices harming American manufacturers that it recently approved a provision to require the Pentagon to buy only American-made solar panels.
.....
China job drain
Alliance for American Manufacturing:
Between 2001 and 2008, 2.4 million U.S. jobs were lost or displaced. Using a new model, the study by the Economic Policy Institute reveals a first look at how the growing trade deficits cost jobs in every congressional district, including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. You can see data for all 437 districts by clicking on the states in the interactive map here.
(Interactive maps and data)
Between 2001 and 2008, 2.4 million U.S. jobs were lost or displaced. Using a new model, the study by the Economic Policy Institute reveals a first look at how the growing trade deficits cost jobs in every congressional district, including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. You can see data for all 437 districts by clicking on the states in the interactive map here.
(Interactive maps and data)
Ordos: China's Building Boom
Time: Inside China's Runaway Building Boom
Slideshow: Ordos: A Modern Ghost Town
Built in just five years, Kangbashi was designed to be the showcase urban center of Ordos City, a relatively wealthy coal-mining hub that's home to 1.5 million people. A public-works project worthy of Kubla Khan's "stately pleasure-dome," Kangbashi is filled with office towers, administrative centers, government buildings, museums, theaters and sports fields — not to mention acre on acre of subdivisions overflowing with middle-class duplexes and bungalows. The only problem: the district was originally designed to house, support and entertain 1 million people, yet hardly anyone lives there. Only a handful of cars drive down Kangbashi's multilane highways, a few government offices are open during the day and an occasional pedestrian, appearing like a hallucination, can be seen trudging down a sidewalk, like a lone survivor of some horror-movie apocalypse.
Slideshow: Ordos: A Modern Ghost Town
Built in just five years, Kangbashi was designed to be the showcase urban center of Ordos City, a relatively wealthy coal-mining hub that's home to 1.5 million people. A public-works project worthy of Kubla Khan's "stately pleasure-dome," Kangbashi is filled with office towers, administrative centers, government buildings, museums, theaters and sports fields — not to mention acre on acre of subdivisions overflowing with middle-class duplexes and bungalows. The only problem: the district was originally designed to house, support and entertain 1 million people, yet hardly anyone lives there. Only a handful of cars drive down Kangbashi's multilane highways, a few government offices are open during the day and an occasional pedestrian, appearing like a hallucination, can be seen trudging down a sidewalk, like a lone survivor of some horror-movie apocalypse.
China's banks
China's banks
The numbers say Chinese banks are doing brilliantly. The market is sceptical.
IN THE war between China bulls and bears, the country’s banks represent an important battleground. The banks are China’s most valuable listed firms, accounting for more than a fifth of the entire Hong Kong stockmarket. Their broader significance to China’s economy is enormous: they provide the bulk of the country’s capital, and their results should, theoretically at least, reflect how well its businesses are performing.
Based on their expected results there is reason only to applaud. Earnings rose by 20-50% in 2010 and analysts are predicting particularly good first-quarter numbers. Profits are growing by more than 20% annually, estimates May Yan of Barclays Capital. Loan losses are vanishingly small. Lending margins are expanding. The potential for fee income is all but untapped. Demand for credit is insatiable. Alternative sources of capital are limited.
Yet the market has its doubts. Though their history as public companies is short, Chinese banks have typically traded at 2.3 times their book value and 12-13 times future earnings. At the moment, however, they trade at 1.5 times book value and eight times expected earnings, levels that ordinarily mark out firms that are vaguely troubled or face brutal competition.
Based on their expected results there is reason only to applaud. Earnings rose by 20-50% in 2010 and analysts are predicting particularly good first-quarter numbers. Profits are growing by more than 20% annually, estimates May Yan of Barclays Capital. Loan losses are vanishingly small. Lending margins are expanding. The potential for fee income is all but untapped. Demand for credit is insatiable. Alternative sources of capital are limited.
Yet the market has its doubts. Though their history as public companies is short, Chinese banks have typically traded at 2.3 times their book value and 12-13 times future earnings. At the moment, however, they trade at 1.5 times book value and eight times expected earnings, levels that ordinarily mark out firms that are vaguely troubled or face brutal competition.
Chinese equivalents
Economist: All the parties in China
What about other economic yardsticks? Guangdong exports as much as South Korea, Jiangsu as much as Taiwan. Shanghai’s GDP per person is as high as Saudi Arabia’s (at purchasing-power parity), though still well below that in China’s special administrative regions, Hong Kong and Macau. At the other extreme, the poorest province, Guizhou, has an income per head close to that of India. Note that these figures use the same PPP conversion rate for the whole of China, but prices are likely to be lower in poorer provinces than in richer ones, slightly reducing regional inequality.
Comparing Chinese provinces with countries
Which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces?
China is now the world’s second-biggest economy, but some of its provinces by themselves would rank fairly high in the global league. Our map shows the nearest equivalent country. For example, Guangdong's GDP (at market exchange rates) is almost as big as Indonesia's; the output of both Jiangsu and Shandong exceeds Switzerland’s. Some provinces may exaggerate their output: the sum of their reported GDPs is 10% higher than the national total. But over time the latter has consistently been revised up, suggesting that any overstatement is modest.What about other economic yardsticks? Guangdong exports as much as South Korea, Jiangsu as much as Taiwan. Shanghai’s GDP per person is as high as Saudi Arabia’s (at purchasing-power parity), though still well below that in China’s special administrative regions, Hong Kong and Macau. At the other extreme, the poorest province, Guizhou, has an income per head close to that of India. Note that these figures use the same PPP conversion rate for the whole of China, but prices are likely to be lower in poorer provinces than in richer ones, slightly reducing regional inequality.
Ai Wei^2
Sunflower Seeds 2010
Photocredit: Tate Photography
Wiki: Ai Weiwei
PBS: Who's afraid of Ai Weiwei?
profiling, video, interviews (cht ver.)
BBC: Ai Weiwei, without fear or favour
profiling, video
VOA Special Report
Economist: Ai's detention part of a worrying trend
Youtube search results
documentaries, interview video clips
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